Tag Archives: 2017

Orange County Housing Report December 5th, 2017

Orange County Housing Report:

“A Holiday Lull”

The Holiday Market is in full swing, bringing a lot less inventory and the lowest level of new deals for the year.

Orange County Housing Report December 5th, 2017

The Holiday Slowdown: Year in and year out December is notoriously the slowest month of the year in terms of demand and new sellers placing their homes on the market. 

In a blink, the housing market transitioned from the Autumn Market to the Holiday/Winter Market. As everybody carved the turkey and filled their bellies with a smorgasbord of food, we ushered in a dramatic shift in housing. This is the time of the year when housing takes a back seat to all of the distractions of the holidays.

Christmas lights now trim neighborhood rooflines. The local mall parking lots are filled to capacity. The US postal service now delivers twice a day. Amazon boxes are dropped off at nearly every door. From holiday parties to gift lists for loved ones, it is a busy time of year as we exchange presents and get ready to usher in 2018. Yet, it is the slowest month of the year for housing.

The active inventory dropped by 8%, 391 homes, in just the past two weeks, the largest drop of the year. From Thanksgiving to New Year’s Day, the average drop since 2013 has been 23%, 1,373 homes. Why does the active inventory drop so dramatically in December? Homeowners instinctively avoid placing their homes on the market this month. Most homeowners want to cash in on “the best time of the year” to sell a home, the Spring Market. As a result, they wait to sell their home. They are only partially right. The Spring Market is the most active time of the year where demand (new pending transactions) reaches a peak for the year, but there is also a surge in new FOR SALE signs, competition. In reality, housing is still hot today for all homes priced below $1 million.

Not only are there fewer homeowners entering the fray in December, many sellers who have been unsuccessful in 2017 opt to throw in the towel and pull their homes off the market. These two combined forces result in an enormous drop in the active inventory.Similarly, demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, also drops dramatically in December. It dropped by 10%, 232 pending sales, in the past couple of weeks, the largest drop off the year as well. Since 2013, the average drop from Thanksgiving to New Year’s Day has been 34%. There are two forces contributing to this massive drop in December demand. First, there are simply not enough homes on the market and there are fewer and fewer choices every day. Second, many buyers are ready for a holiday break. They are a bit worn out from the scorching hot real estate market and the constant search for their piece of the American Dream. They step aside and enjoy the season.

The bottom line: the holiday lull is here, so set your expectations accordingly.

Active Inventory: The active inventory dropped by 8% over the past couple of weeks.
The active listing inventory shed 391 homes in the past two weeks and now sits at 4,323, the largest drop of the year. Since peaking in mid-July, the inventory has plunged by 1,660 homes, a tremendous 28% drop. The Holiday Market is officially here. Expect the inventory to continue to descend dramatically for the remainder of the year. As a result, the New Year will start with fewer than 4,000 homes, the second lowest inventory behind 2013.Last year at this time, there were 5,177 homes on the market, 854 additional homes, or 20% more than today.Demand:  Demand decreased by 10% in the past couple of weeks.
Yes, the Holiday Market has arrived. In the past two weeks, demand, the number of new escrows over the prior month, decreased by 232 pending sales, or 10%, and now totals 2,082. Like the active inventory, demand just experienced its biggest drop of the year. The decline will continue through the end of the month. By the start of 2018, demand will be at its lowest point in a year.Last year at this time, demand was at 2,116 pending sales, 34 more than today.The expected market time, the amount of time it would take for a home that comes onto the market today to be placed into escrow, increased slightly from 61 to 62 days, a slight seller’s market with mild appreciation. Last year’s expected market time was at 73 days.Luxury End:  Luxury demand plunged in the last couple of weeks. 
In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million decreased from 299 to 236 pending sales, down 21%. The beginning of the Holiday Market walloped luxury demand. The luxury home inventory decreased from 1,672 homes to 1,585, a 5% drop in the past two-weeks. Expect both the inventory and demand to continue to drop through the end of the year. The expected market time for all homes priced above $1.25 million increased from 168 days to 201.For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 112 to 129 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 143 to 169 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 181 days to 246 days. In addition, for homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 466 to 437 days. At 466 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around the mid-February 2019.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:
  • The active listing inventory decreased by 391 homes in the past couple of weeks and now totals 4,323, the largest drop of the year. Expect the inventory to drop considerably for the remainder of the year. Last year, there were 5,177 homes on the market, 854 more than today.
  • There are 32% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 9%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, plunged by 232 in the past couple of weeks, down 10%, and now totals 2,082. The average pending price is $841,391.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County increased to $1.8 million, a new record. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 39 days. This range represents 39% of the active inventory and 63% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 54 days, a hot seller’s market (less than 60 days). This range represents 16% of the active inventory and 19% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 71 days, a slight seller’s market.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 112 days to 129. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 143 to 169 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 181 days to 246 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 466 to 437 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 37% of the inventory and only 11% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County increased slightly from 61 days to 62, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to rise slightly through the end of the year.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.5% of all listings and 2.3% of demand. There are only 21 foreclosures and 43 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 64 total distressed homes on the active market, dropping by 4 in the past two weeks. Last year there were 120 total distressed sales, 88% more than today.
  • There were 2,553 closed residential resales in October, down by 1% from October 2016’s 2,575 closed sales. October marked a 7% drop from September 2017, normal for the Autumn Market. The sales to list price ratio was 98.4% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.7% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 1.2%. That means that 98.1% of all sales were good

Orange County Housing Report November 21st, 2017

Orange County Housing Report:

“Not Anytime Soon!”

With an unrelenting lack of supply of homes FOR SALE, it will
not be a buyer’s market anytime soon.

Orange County Housing Report November 21st, 2017

 

Not a Buyer’s Market: Since 2012, the active inventory for Orange County has been extremely limited.

It is time to load the plate with turkey, ham, sweet potatoes, string beans, mashed potatoes, Brussels sprouts, stuffing, and cranberry sauce. Thanksgiving is all about plenty of choices and not enough room on the dinner plate to fit it all. As Americans, we eat more on this day than any other day of the year.

There may be plenty of choices for the Thanksgiving meal, but the Thanksgiving housing market is seriously lacking choices with a razor-thin supply of homes for sale. With only 4,714 homes available to purchase in Orange County, buyers in the lower ranges, homes priced below $750,000, are literally waiting on the sidelines for the next home to come on the market. It is a seller’s market for all homes below $1.25 million (88% of all closed sales in 2017 have been below $1.25 million).

The active listing inventory in Orange County has been leaning in the sellers favor since February 2012. That was not only the beginning of the recovery, it was the beginning of a six-year run in housing. And, housing is poised to continue its run for a seventh year due to a chronically low inventory.

In order for housing to move away from a seller’s market and transition to a balanced market, one that does not favor a buyer or seller, the active inventory must grow beyond 8,000 homes. When it remains above the 8,000 home threshold, housing will eventually transition into a buyer’s market. However, that is not going to occur anytime soon.

 

It occurred for about five months back in 2004, not long enough to move from a balanced market to a buyer’s market. It happened again for a couple of months during the Autumn Market of 2005, one of the first cracks in the housing market that lead up to the Great Recession. The active inventory surpassed 8,000 homes again in January 2006 and remained elevated through September 2009, nearly four consecutive years. Even though the Great Recession started in March 2007, the active inventory signaled throughout 2006 that the market was poised for a change.

The active inventory climbed above the 8,000 mark again in February 2010 and remained elevated through January 2012, an additional two years. From there, it dropped like a rock and housing transitioned seemingly overnight from a buyer’s to a seller’s market. It has been a seller’s market ever since and has only surpassed the 8,000 home threshold for four weeks during the summer of 2014, not long enough for anybody to notice.

The bottom line is this: the 8,000 home mark is a level that establishes which way the market is heading. With an only 4,714 homes on the market today, and dropping, the inventory is nowhere close to that mark. In fact, 2018 is going to start with fewer than 4,000 homes, less than the start to this year. And, this year was defined by its lack of homes for sale, especially below $750,000.

Everybody is wondering, “When will Orange County housing become a buyer’s market?” The answer is, quite simply, “not anytime soon.”

Active Inventory: The active inventory dropped by 3% over the past couple of weeks.
The active listing inventory shed 164 homes in the past two weeks and now sits at 4,714, a 3% drop. Since peaking in mid-July, the inventory has discarded 1,269 homes, a healthy 20% drop. With Thanksgiving this week, housing will transition into the Holiday Market and the inventory will drop like a rock from this week through the end of the year. The New Year will start with fewer than 4,000 homes, the second lowest inventory behind 2013.

Last year at this time, there were 5,655 homes on the market, 941 additional homes, or 20% more than today.

Demand:  Demand decreased by 4% in the past couple of weeks.
Demand, the number of homes placed into escrow within the prior month, decreased by 95 pending sales, or 4%, in the past two-weeks, and now totals 2,314. With Orange County housing transitioning into the Holiday Market this week, demand will decline and pick up momentum in December. By the start of the New Year, demand will be at its lowest point of the year.

Last year at this time, demand was at 2,339 pending sales, 25 more than today. That is not that big of a difference considering that there are far fewer choices on the market today compared to one year ago.

The expected market time, the amount of time it would take for a home that comes onto the market today to be placed into escrow, remained the same at 61 homes, still on the cusp of a hot seller’s market. Last year’s expected market time was at 73 days.

Luxury End:  Luxury demand fell sharply in the last couple of weeks.
In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million decreased from 325 to 299 pending sales, down 8%. Luxury is already transitioning into the Holiday Market. The luxury home inventory decreased from 1,712 homes to 1,672, a 2% drop in the past two-weeks. Expect both the inventory and demand to drop by the end of the year. The expected market time for all homes priced above $1.25 million increased from 158 days to 168.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 100 to 112 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 154 to 143 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 164 days to 181 days. In addition, for homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 424 to 466 days. At 466 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around the start of March 2019.

 

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

  • The active listing inventory decreased by 164 homes in the past couple of weeks and now totals 4,714. With the start of the Holiday Market this week, the inventory will drop considerably for the remainder of the year. Last year, there were 5,655 homes on the market, 941 more than today.
  • There are 32% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 17%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 95 homes in the past couple of weeks, down 4%, and now totals 2,314. The average pending price is $861,404.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.7 million. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 39 days. This range represents 39% of the active inventory and 62% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 57 days, a hot seller’s market (less than 60 days). This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 18% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 76 days, a seller’s market.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 100 days to 112. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 154 to 143 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 164 days to 181 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 424 to 466 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 36% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County remained at 61 days, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to rise slightly through the end of the year.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.4% of all listings and 2.1% of demand. There are only 23 foreclosures and 45 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 68 total distressed homes on the active market, increasing by 10 in the past two weeks. Last year there were 123 total distressed sales, 81% more than today.
  • There were 2,553 closed residential resales in October, down by 1% from October 2016’s 2,575 closed sales. October marked a 7% drop from September 2017, normal for the Autumn Market. The sales to list price ratio was 98.4% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.7% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 1.2%. That means that 98.1% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Orange County Housing Report November 7th, 2017

Orange County Housing Report:

“Hot in November?!?!”

With such limited supply, this is the hottest November housing
market in years.

Orange County Housing Report November 7th, 2017

 

Hot November Housing: With an expected market time of just 61 days, the Orange County housing market is still firing on all cylinders.

Buyers cannot get a break from the relentlessly hot housing market in Orange County. For homes priced below $1 million, there are simply not enough homes to satisfy the sea of buyers attempting to purchase. Moreover, November 2017 is exceptionally hot for this time of the year.

Just because Starbucks now has festive cups and holiday commercials monopolize the airwaves does not mean that the housing market slows. In fact, during this time of the year, if a home is priced right and in great condition, it will procure multiple offers, often times selling for above its list price. This will continue through Thanksgiving when the market transitions to the slower Holiday/Winter Market.

What is really at play here is that there are plenty of buyers who still want to purchase, yet fewer homes are coming on the market and many homeowners who have been on the market for quite some time are giving up and throwing in the towel in anticipation of the slower holiday season. The active listing inventory drops like a rock and demand remains steady. With a dropping supply and steady demand, the expected market time dips, and the market gets hotter.

 

Within the last couple of weeks, the expected market time dropped from 65 days to 61. Housing is actually getting stronger. It typically does from October through mid-November. The difference this year is that the market was already hot and somebody just turned up the heat.

Within the past couple of weeks, the active inventory shed 6%, dropping by 337 homes, the largest drop so far this year. On the other hand, demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, increased by 16, or 1%. That is precisely why the expected market time plunged from 65 to 61 days in such a short period. The supply of homes dropped and demand increased. At 61 days, this is the hottest the market has been in November since 2012, the beginning of the housing recovery.

Buyers are feeling the pinch too, as the number of homes on the market is evaporating before their very eyes. For the sellers that do remain, open houses are still packed, there are plenty of showings, and attractively priced homes in great condition are entertaining offers within hours of installing the FOR SALE sign in their yards. It is frustrating to be a buyer and glorious to be a seller.

In spite of the fact that Thanksgiving is just a couple of weeks away, November 2017 is going to be very hot for housing.

Tax Reform and Its Impact on Housing: California is going to be hit hard by the proposed tax reform. 

Many are asking how the proposed tax reform is going to affect the housing market right here in Orange County. Here’s how it will impact real estate:

  • Lowers the mortgage interest deduction cap from $1 million to $500,000 (on all new purchases)
  • Eliminates the mortgage interest deduction on second homes
  • Homeowners would no longer be able to deduct the interest on home equity loans
  • Eliminates state and local income tax deductions
  • Caps property tax deductions at $10,000
  • Extends the qualification period for exclusion of capital gains tax on the sale of a primary home from two out of the last five years to five out of the last eight years

Remember, at this point this is just a proposal from the House Ways and Means Committee. However, the House is attempting to pass a tax reform bill by Thanksgiving in order for it to move its way through the Senate and onto President Trump’s desk for signing by year’s end.

The tax proposal would hurt homeownership and remove incentives for buyers to purchase. Its impact would be significant and has the potential to shake up the housing industry especially in California and Orange County where the median sales price is much higher than the rest of the country.

Active Inventory: The active inventory dropped by 6% over the past couple of weeks.

The active listing inventory shed 337 homes in the past two weeks and now sits at 4,878, a 6% drop. It is the largest drop so far this year, bringing the inventory to the lowest level since March. The inventory will continue to drop through the end of the year, which will result in a start to the New Year with less than 4,000 homes, the second lowest inventory behind 2013. On January 1, 2013, there were only 3,249 homes on the market. This year started with 4,071 homes.

Last year at this time, there were 5,955 homes on the market, 1,077 additional homes, or 22% more than today.

Demand:  Demand increased by 1% in the past couple of weeks.

Demand, the number of homes placed into escrow within the prior month, increased by 16 pending sales, or 1%, in the past two-weeks, and now totals 2,409. Demand will remain close to this level for the next month before it starts its seasonal drop from Thanksgiving week through the end of 2017.

Last year at this time, demand was at 2,468 pending sales, 59 more than today. That is not that big of a difference considering that there are far fewer choices on the market today compared to one year ago.

The expected market time, the amount of time it would take for a home that comes onto the market today to be placed into escrow, dropped from 65 to 61 days, on the cusp of a hot seller’s market. Last year’s expected market time was at 72 days.

Luxury End:  Luxury supply plummets while demand rises.

In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million increased from 302 to 325 pending sales, up 8%. That is a solid improvement and a clear indicator that the luxury market is making its final push to close out the year strong. The luxury home inventory decreased from 1,818 homes to 1,712, a 6% drop in the past two-weeks. The luxury inventory will continue to drop through the end of the year. Since demand increased and the inventory dropped, the expected market time for all homes priced above $1.25 million dropped from 181 days to 158.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time decreased from 111 to 100 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 173 to 154 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time dropped from 218 days to 164 days. In addition, for homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 326 to 424 days. At 424 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around the start of January 2019.

 

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

  • The active listing inventory decreased by 337 homes in the past couple of weeks, the largest drop of the year, and now totals 4,878. The trend is down for the remainder of the year. Last year, there were 5,955 homes on the market, 1,077 more than today.
  • There are 36% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 16%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 16 homes in the past couple of weeks, up 1%, and now totals 2,409. The average pending price is $879,146.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.7 million. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 40 days. This range represents 40% of the active inventory and 61% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 51 days, a hot seller’s market (less than 60 days). This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 20% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 85 days, an extremely slight seller’s market with very slow appreciation.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time decreased from 111 days to 100. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 173 to 154 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 218 days to 164 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 326 to 424 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 35% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County decreased in the past couple of weeks from 65 days to 61 days, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to remain relatively flat, rising slightly by year’s end.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.2% of all listings and 2.3% of demand. There are only 20 foreclosures and 38 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 58 total distressed homes on the active market, decreasing by 9 in the past two weeks. Last year there were 133 total distressed sales, 129% more than today.
  • There were 2,543 closed residential resales in October, down by 1% from October 2016’s 2,575 closed sales. October marked a 7% drop from September 2017, normal for the Autumn Market. The sales to list price ratio was 98.2% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.7% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 1.2%. That means that 98.1% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

 

 

 

 

 

Orange County Housing Report October 24th, 2017

Orange County Housing Report:

“Running Out of Time”

The window of opportunity is closing for sellers to find success
in 2017.

Orange County Housing Report October 24th, 2017

 

Last Call for 2017: Four more weeks until the slowest season of the year starts for housing.

Pass the turkey! It is right around the corner… cranberry sauce, gravy, stuffing, mashed potatoes, cornbread, glazed carrots, green beans, pumpkin pie, honey baked ham, and, of course, plenty of turkey. Thanksgiving is a little over a month away. There are plenty of signs that the holiday season is right around the corner. The days are getting shorter. Professional installers are already putting up holiday lights on homes and businesses. Stores are gearing up for their busiest time of the year.

The weekend prior to Thanksgiving is the LAST HURRAH before the housing market transitions from the Autumn Market to the Holiday/Winter Market. From there, real estate activity takes a back seat to the all of the distractions of the holidays. Demand comes to a crawl, dropping by about 25% from where it is today. The active inventory drops considerably, shedding about 25% as well. Fewer and fewer homeowners will opt to sell and many unsuccessful sellers will throw in the towel and pull their homes off the market, choosing to wait until the much more active spring selling season.

There will still be plenty of new escrows opened prior to transitioning into the season of yuletide greetings, but that window of opportunity will close fast. Before you know it, real estate will take a back seat to holiday decorations, shopping, company parties, and family gatherings.

Many REALTORS® assert that they are busy during the month of December. There typically is an uptick in closed sales in comparing December to November numbers. This uptick is due to a slight surge in new pending sales from now through Thanksgiving. Those pending sales close during the month of December.

While there may be more closed sales in December, the number of new pending sales, demand, drops like a rock. Demand drops dramatically from mid-November until it bottoms with the start to the New Year. The market typically does not shake off the effects of the holidays until around the third week of January. It will not be until the end of January when Orange County housing will start to rev its massive engine and demand will rise considerably. As a result, January and February are cyclically the slowest months of the year in terms of closed sales.

The active inventory will drop from now through the end of the year and will pick up steam from Thanksgiving week on. It too will reach a bottom on January 1st. Typically, the inventory does not really start to build until the beginning of March. With so few homes on the market today, the start to 2018 is expected to be extremely anemic.

WARNING to Buyers: Contrary to want many think, the holidays are NOT a time when sellers are suddenly desperate; as a result, you will not get a “deal.” There are not enough homes on the market to begin with. The few that do remain will not be giving away the farm to make something happen just because it is the holidays.

WARNING to Sellers: You are running out of time before the market slows significantly and your chances of success drop.

Active Inventory: The active inventory dropped by 3% over the past couple of weeks.

The active listing inventory shed 167 homes in the past two weeks and now sits at 5,215, the lowest level since the start of April. The theme for the 2017 housing market has been “a serious lack of FOR SALE signs.” Unfortunately, it is not going to get any better any time soon. The active inventory will continue to drop for the remainder of the year.

Last year at this time, there were 6,337 homes on the market, 1,122 additional homes, or 22% more than today.

Demand:  Demand decreased by 1% in the past couple of weeks.

Demand, the number of homes placed into escrow within the prior month, decreased by 33 pending sales, or 1%, in the past two-weeks, and now totals 2,393. It is the lowest level since the start of January of this year. Demand will remain close to this level for the next month before it starts its seasonal drop from Thanksgiving week through the end of 2017.

Last year at this time, demand was at 2,480 pending sales, 87 more than today. Part of the difference is due to significantly fewer homes available to purchase today compared to last year.

The expected market time, the amount of time it would take for a home that comes onto the market today to be placed into escrow, dropped from 67 to 65 days, a slight seller’s market where housing still tilts in the sellers favor and appreciation slows. Last year’s expected market time was at 77 days.

Luxury End:  Luxury supply plummets while demand remains the same.

In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million dropped from 303 to 302 pending sales. That is solid, indicating that the luxury market will most likely remain stable from now through Thanksgiving similar to the lower price ranges. The luxury home inventory decreased from 1,887 homes to 1,818, a 4% drop, in the past two-weeks. The luxury inventory will continue to drop through the end of the year. Since demand really did not change and the inventory dropped, the expected market time for all homes priced above $1.25 million dropped from 187 days to 181.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 101 to 111 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 178 to 173 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time dropped from 280 days to 218 days. In addition, for homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 316 to 326 days. At 326 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around mid-September of 2018.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

  • The active listing inventory decreased by 167 homes in the past couple of weeks, and now totals 5,215. The trend is down for the remainder of the year. Last year, there were 6,337 homes on the market, 1,122 more than today.
  • There are 38% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 17%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 33 homes in the past couple of weeks, down 1%, and now totals 2,393. The average pending price is $872,219.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.7 million. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 43 days. This range represents 40% of the active inventory and 61% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 55 days, a hot seller’s market (less than 60 days). This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 20% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 88 days, an extremely slight seller’s market with very slow appreciation.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 101 days to 111. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 178 to 173 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 280 days to 218 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 316 to 326 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 35% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County decreased in the past couple of weeks from 67 days to 65 days, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to slowly rise as housing makes its way through the final month of the Autumn Market.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.3% of all listings and 2.5% of demand. There are only 27 foreclosures and 40 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 67 total distressed homes on the active market, decreasing by 14 in the past two weeks. Last year there were 133 total distressed sales, 99% more than today.
  • There were 2,746 closed residential resales in September, nearly identical to the 2,736 closed sales in September 2016. September marked a 12% drop from August 2017, part of a normal autumn housing transition. The sales to list price ratio was 98% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.6% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 0.9%. That means that 98.5% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Orange County Housing Report October 11th, 2017

Orange County Housing Report:

“I’m Going to Wait to Buy”

Many potential buyers are unaware that there is a significant cost in waiting to purchase.

Orange County Housing Report October 11th, 2017

 

Cost of Waiting: Today’s 3.85% interest rate is a gift in historical context.
There have not been enough homes on the market for over five years now. This trend has been reinforced in 2017 with 7% fewer FOR SALE signs compared to last year. Buyers have been tripping over each other in search of their piece of the “American Dream.” The lower the price range, the harder it has been to secure a home.

It has been difficult and frustrating to be a buyer, and that has not changed in years; and, it is not going to change in 2018 either. It is easy to empathize with buyers, especially those with smaller down payments. Buyers cannot help but fall in love with a home, write an offer, and then find out that they are one of ten buyers bidding on the same home. They have a 10% chance of being the winning bidder. They are instructed not to fall in love with a home until they are the winning bid. That is easier said than done. Buyers are human beings. They write offers to purchase a home because it is a good fit for their family. They visualize how their furniture will be situated in their potential new home. They visualize where they will entertain the extended family on the 4th of July and Thanksgiving. They visualize life. How are they supposed to strip the process of finding a home from all of their emotions?

Most buyers have been busy writing offer after offer, falling in love with home after home. The process can be grueling and exhausting. It does not mean that it cannot be done; it is just not going to be easy by any stretch of the imagination. Tapping out is not the answer. As frustrating as the process has been, it is not going to improve anytime soon. Taking a short break is understandable, but buyers really need to talk themselves out of saying, “I’m going to wait to buy.”

What exactly are they waiting for? The inventory of homes is not forecasted to significantly rise for a very long time. Buyers will be facing limited choices for the long haul unless they are looking for homes in the luxury end. There are plenty of choices above $1.5 million, but that is simply not the typical buyer. The only reason there are more choices for luxury housing is that there are fewer buyers that can afford the high sticker prices. For the rest of the market, there are not enough options to purchase and demand is red hot.

So, what happens to buyers that do wait?  The biggest risk is the eventual rise in interest rates. It seems that the experts and prognosticators have been calling for a rise in interest rates for a few years running; yet, the increases have yet to materialize. Everybody needs to understand that it took quite a bit of manipulation by central banks around the world to get rates down to these unbelievable levels. Rates will not drop further. Instead, as the central banks, starting with the U.S. Federal Reserve, reverse course on their monetary policies, rates will become more volatile and will begin to rise.

Will rates remain low for the coming year? It is quite likely; however, “don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.” This interest rate environment is a total gift from international central banks and our Federal Reserve. It will not be around forever.

Down the road, many will look back at these interest rates and wish they had pulled the trigger and locked in for the long haul. When interest rates rise just 1% from where they are today, a $500,000 mortgage will cost an additional $297 per month or $3,564 per year. For a $750,000 mortgage, a buyer is looking at paying an additional $445 per month or $5,340 per year. Over a five-year period the increase accumulates to $26,700; and, over the 30-year life of the loan, the homeowner will have paid an additional $160,020.

It seems that everybody has become quite accustomed to today’s low rates. For context, the 30-year fixed rate peaked at over 18% back in 1981 and it has been trending down ever since. In 1990, rates were at 10%. In 1980, it was 8%. Just prior to the Great Recession, mortgage rates had fallen to 6.35%. After tremendous manipulation by the Federal Reserve, rates dropped all the way down to 3.35% by the end of 2012, fueling the bonanza in housing that everybody is feeling today. Rates have hit a bottom and are only expected to rise from here. It’s not a matter of IF they rise; it’s more a matter of WHEN.

For buyers, it is not wise to gamble on rates. They are low today and the Orange County housing market is expected to continue to appreciate through 2018. The longer a buyer waits, the higher the mortgage payment will be down the road.

Active Inventory: The active inventory dropped by 2% over the past couple of weeks.
The active listing inventory shed 111 homes in the past two weeks and now sits at 5,382. There really are not that many homes on the market compared to the last few years. Only in 2012 were there fewer homes on the market to start October. The active inventory will continue to fall through the remainder of the year, picking up steam after Thanksgiving, the start of the Holiday/Winter Market.

Last year at this time, there were 6,472 homes on the market, 1,090 additional homes, or 20% more than today.

Demand:  Demand decreased by 4% in the past couple of weeks.
Demand, the number of homes placed into escrow within the prior month, decreased by 94 pending sales, or 4%, in the past two-weeks, and now totals 2,426. Part of this drop is seasonal. Demand tends to drop a bit during the Autumn Market with both the Spring and Summer Markets in the rearview mirror. Additionally, fewer homes are coming on the market compared to the last few years for this time of year as well. Within the last month, 7% fewer FOR SALE signs have been placed in homeowners’ yards compared to 2016. With fewer choices, the number of pending sales has taken a hit.

Last year at this time, demand was at 2,693 pending sales, 267 more than today, or 11% higher.

The expected market time, the amount of time it would take for a home that comes onto the market today to be placed into escrow, rose from 65 to 67 days, a slight seller’s market where housing still tilts in the sellers’ favor and appreciation slows. Last year’s expected market time was at 72 days at the beginning of October.

Luxury End:  Luxury supply and luxury demand dropped in the past couple of weeks.
In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million decreased from 318 to 303 pending sales, a 5% drop. Since reaching 385 at the end of August, demand has dropped by 21%, representing a major shift in the Autumn Luxury Market. The luxury home inventory decreased from 1,959 homes to 1,887, a 4% drop, in the past two-weeks. As a result, the expected market time for all homes priced above $1.25 million slowed slightly from 185 days to 187. Luxury inventory and luxury demand will continue to drop through the end of the year.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 99 to 101 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 169 to 178 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 264 days to 280 days. In addition, for homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 424 to 316 days. At 316 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around the end of August of 2018.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

  • The active listing inventory decreased by 111 homes in the past couple of weeks and now totals 5,382. The trend is down for the remainder of the year. Last year, there were 6,472 homes on the market, 1,090 more than today.
  • There are 37% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 27%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 94 homes in the past couple of weeks, down 4%, and now totals 2,426. The average pending price is $870,430.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.7 million. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 42 days. This range represents 39% of the active inventory and 62% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 57 days, a hot seller’s market (less than 60 days). This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 20% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 95 days, a balanced market that does not favor a buyer or seller.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 99 days to 101. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 169 to 178 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 264 days to 280 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 424 to 316 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 35% of the inventory and only 12% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County increased in the past couple of weeks from 65 days to 67 days, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to slowly rise as housing makes its way through the Autumn Market.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.5% of all listings and 2% of demand. There are only 34 foreclosures and 47 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 81 total distressed homes on the active market, decreasing by 7 in the past two weeks. Last year there were 128 total distressed sales, 58% more than today.
  • There were 2,733 closed residential resales in September, nearly identical to the 2,736 closed sales in September 2016. September marked a 12% drop over August 2017, part of a normal autumn housing transition. The sales to list price ratio was 98.1% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.6% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 0.9%. That means that 98.5% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

Orange County Housing Report September 26th, 2017

Orange County Housing Report: My Home’s Not Selling!!!

Even though the housing market is hot, there are plenty of homes that are sitting with no success.

 

Orange County Housing Report September 26th, 2017

 

Sitting on the Market: 43% of the active listing inventory has been on the market for over two months.

The excitement is in the air. A homeowner sits across from a REALTOR® and signs all of the contracts. Their home is officially on the market. With eager anticipation, they clean their home from top to bottom and turn on all of the lights; the first potential buyer is coming to look. After the buyer tours the home, the sellers return and wonder whether the buyers liked it enough to bring an offer. After all, the market is incredibly hot, right? Yet, there is no offer. Showing after showing, day after day, week after week, there are no offers. Moreover, the number of showings has trickled down to only a couple per week after three months of market exposure. What is going on?

Everybody has been talking about how Orange County housing has been red-hot; however, many sellers are not finding success. An incredible 43% of all homes that are on the active listing inventory have been exposed to the market for more than two months. Of course, this is standard for luxury real estate, but there are plenty of homes in the lower ranges having trouble as well.  Nearly a third of all homes priced below $750,000 have been FOR SALE for more than two months and are still waiting for the right buyer to bring a mutually acceptable offer to purchase. For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, it grows to 36%; the higher the price, the harder it is to sell.

 

What gives? If housing is so unbelievably hot, why are many sellers struggling to hit pay dirt? Of course, most everybody immediately thinks it is the price. In most cases, that is only part of the issue.

Buyers are human. They like to purchase new. They prefer a home that is truly “turnkey” where all they have to do is move in. The reality is there is not enough brand new product in Orange County. Yet, even brand new is not turnkey. They have to decide on upgrades through the builder, and, after the closing, they have to purchase and install window coverings and design and complete all of the landscaping. There is a lot of effort that goes into a new home purchase.

All of the HGTV programs, from Flip or Flop to Property Brothers, have helped create an expectation and desire for buyers to purchase homes that look like a model. As long as the price is right, the closer a home looks to model perfect with all of the bells and whistles, the faster the home will fly off the market. Unfortunately, not every home shows like a model.

Many homes are dated. If a home has a kitchen that is more than 10 years old, it is starting to look worn and dated. If the grass has brown patches and the planters are sprouting weeds, the yard is looking worn and dated. Vinyl flooring, popcorn ceilings, stained carpet, single-paned windows, scuffed walls, aluminum blinds, ceramic tile in the kitchen, original bathroom hardware, water stained cabinets, etcetera, all contribute to a home feeling used and worn. Throw in a pet with all of the odors, hair, and damage, and it is no wonder that sellers are having a hard time selling.

Many investors have flipped homes for a profit. How do they do this? They do this by purchasing a home for a low price that needs quite a bit of work, and then fixing it up and selling it for much more, making a handsome profit. They install new granite counters, flooring, paint, light fixtures, cabinets, scrape popcorn ceilings, and install new sod, plants, flowers, and mulch. Basically, they make a residential resale look and feel like a model. A little professional staging and the investor is able to make a healthy profit.

In order to compete and fetch top dollar, a good ol’ fashioned homeowner who has lived in their home for years must invest in their home by approaching selling like a flipper. They too can make their home look like a model. Taking care of deferred maintenance will afford buyers the ability to visualize moving in right away. They will not have to address cosmetic issues after closing. Buyers are willing to pay a premium for homes that are turnkey and look like a model. The sellers will net more money by addressing the deferred maintenance and their home will fly off the market.

If a seller does not address the deferred maintenance, then the price must be adjusted accordingly. Buyers subtract a lot more than it costs to take care of any deferred maintenance, which ultimately nets the seller less money in the sale of their home.

WARNING TO SELLERS: price is the most important factor in successfully selling. Overprice in a hot seller’s market, and you still won’t sell. Instead, you will waste valuable market time. Success takes into consideration price, condition, and location. Sellers are able to control both the price and condition in order to achieve their goal in selling.

Active Inventory: The active inventory dropped by 3% over the past couple of weeks.
The active listing inventory shed 146 homes in the past two weeks and now sits at 5,493. The inventory has not been this low since the start of May; and, for this time of the year, the start of autumn, it has not been this low since 2012. The active inventory will continue to trend down through the remainder of the year, picking up steam after Thanksgiving, the start of the Holiday/Winter Market.

Last year at this time, there were 6,786 homes on the market, 1,293 additional homes or 24% more than today.

 

Demand:  Demand decreased by 4% in the past couple of weeks.
Demand, the number of homes placed into escrow within the prior month, decreased by 104 pending sales, or 4%, in the past two-weeks and now totals 2,520. The Orange County housing market is experiencing a higher than the normal drop for this time of the year because of a serious lack of homes coming on the market right now. Within the last month, 10% fewer homes have come on the market this year compared to 2016. Fewer available homes are cutting into the number of potential pending sales, which is affecting demand.

The expected market time, the amount of time it would take for a home that comes onto the market today to be placed into escrow, rose from 64 to 65 days, a slight seller’s market where housing still tilts in the sellers’ favor and appreciation slows. Last year’s expected market time was 72 days at the end of September.

Last year at this time, demand was at 2,812 pending sales, 292 more than today, or 12% higher.

Luxury End:  Luxury demand tumbled by 11% in the past couple of weeks, while the inventory dropped by only 1%.
In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million decreased from 358 to 318 pending sales, an 11% drop, representing a major shift in the luxury market. The luxury home inventory decreased from 1,979 homes to 1,959, a 1% drop. As a result, the expected market time for all homes priced above $1.25 million increased from 166 days to 185 days. The luxury inventory and demand will continue to drop through the end of the year.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 90 to 99 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 171 to 169 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 198 days to 264 days. In addition, for homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 460 to 424 days. At 424 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around Thanksgiving of next year.

 



Orange County Housing Market Summary:

  • The active listing inventory decreased by 146 homes in the past couple of weeks and now totals 5,493. The trend is down for the remainder of the year. Last year, there were 6,786 homes on the market, 1,293 more than today.
  • There are 43% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 28%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 104 homes in the past couple of weeks, down 4%, and now totals 2,825. The average pending price is $847,650.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.7 million. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 41 days. This range represents 38% of the active inventory and 62% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 57 days, a hot seller’s market (less than 60 days). This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 20% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 97 days, a balanced market that does not favor a buyer or seller.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 93 days to 99. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 171 to 169 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 185 days to 264 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 460 to 424 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 36% of the inventory and only 12% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County increased in the past couple of weeks from 64 days to 65 days, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to slowly rise as housing makes its way through the Autumn Market.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.6% of all listings and 2.1% of demand. There are only 35 foreclosures and 53 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 88 total distressed homes on the active market, increasing by 1 in the past two weeks. Last year there were 120 total distressed sales, 36% more than today.
  • There were 3,116 closed sales in August, a 12% increase over July 2017 and a 1.3% increase over August 2016. The sales to list price ratio was 98% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.8% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 0.7%. That means that 98.5% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned equity sellers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Orange County Housing Report September 13th, 2017

Orange County Housing Report: Home Supply Slicing Into Sales

The lack of homes for sale in Orange County has hit pending sales activity.

Orange County Housing Report September 13th, 2017

Supply Cuts Pending Sales: The number of pending sales over the past month dropped by 7% due to a supply of homes that are now dropping as well.
Homeowners have been behaving differently ever since the Great Recession began a decade ago. A trend evolved and it has not changed since 2008. That trend is a drought of homeowners opting to sell their homes. In fact, this year it has been even more pronounced.

The number of homes placed on the market this year is the second lowest level this century behind 2012. The lack of homes FOR SALE back then was understandable as home values were only starting to rise and many homeowners were upside down in their homes, owing more than their homes were worth. Flash forward five years later to today and home values have appreciated substantially (the median value of a resale home has increased by more than 60%). Even with the extra equity, homeowners are opting to stay put and are not moving. The trend continues.

This year, there have been 7% fewer homes that have come on the market compared to last year, 2,055 fewer to be exact. For perspective, there have been 18,000 fewer FOR SALE signs this year compared to 2004. This lack of inventory has hurt the true potential for closed sales. With interest rates below 4%, buyers have been chomping at the bit to purchase; yet, they face stiff competition due to a lack of supply.

Today there are 20% fewer choices on the market compared to last year, 5,639 versus 7,040. As a result, the number of pending sales over the prior month (how Reports On Housing gauges demand), dropped in the past couple of weeks by 7%, with 201 fewer pending sales, now totaling 2,624. Today’s demand is 3% off of last year’s 2,719. The lack of supply is truly cutting into the number of pending sales and has undercut demand.

 



True demand, buyers ready, willing and able to buy today, is much higher than the pending sales count is showing simply because of not enough choices. There are insufficient homes FOR SALE in the lower ranges, homes priced below $750,000. This range accounts for 39% of the inventory and 60% of demand. If there were more homes available within this range, the number of pending sales, and ultimately closed sales would skyrocket. This price range is underserved as fewer and fewer homeowners are electing to sell. There are 41% fewer active listings available today below $500,000 compared to last year, and the expected market time (the amount of time it will take a home placed on the market today to open escrow) is a blistering hot 36 days. There are 22% fewer homes available between $500,000 and $750,000, and the expected market time is a hot 46 days. These hot markets are a direct result of a skimpy supply all year long.

There are 25% fewer homes on the market between $750,000 to $1 million, yet the expected market time is at 56 days, not as hot as the lower price ranges. Even though there are fewer choices for buyers, sellers better are priced on the money or they won’t be successful. For homes priced above $1 million, there may be slightly fewer homes on the market compared to last year; however, the expected market time runs from 93 days ($1 million to $1.25 million) to 460 days ($4 million and up). These sellers not only need to be priced precisely on target, they must pack their patience as well.

The bottom line: the Orange County housing market could use more homes on the market, especially in the lower ranges. This lack of inventory has diminished the number of pending and closed sales and has prevented local housing from reaching its full potential.

Active Inventory: The active inventory dropped by 4% over the past couple of weeks.
The active listing inventory shed 223 homes in the past two weeks and now sits at 5,639. It is the lowest level for this time of the year since 2012. The active inventory is falling as expected now that the Autumn Market is here. It will continue to trend down through the remainder of the year, picking up steam after Thanksgiving, the start of the Holiday/Winter Market.

Last year at this time, there were 7,040 homes on the market, 1,401 additional homes or 25% more than today.

Demand:  Demand decreased by 7% in the past couple of weeks.
Demand, the number of homes placed into escrow within the prior month, decreased by 201 pending sales, or 7%, in the past two-weeks and now totals 2,624. The drop is primarily due to a lack of available choices in the lower ranges below $750,000. For homes priced above $750,000, with the only exception being homes between $1.5 million to $2 million, demand is actually up year over year. There have also been slightly more homes placed on the market year over year for these higher price ranges.

Last year at this time, demand was at 2,719 pending sales, 95 more than today.

Luxury End:  Luxury demand plunged by 7% in the past couple of weeks and the inventory dropped by 1%.
In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million decreased from 385 to 358 pending sales, a 7% drop. The luxury home inventory decreased from 2,002 homes to 1,979, a 1% drop. As a result, the expected market time for all homes priced above $1.25 million increased from 156 days to 166 days. The luxury inventory and demand will continue to drop through the end of the year

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time decreased from 98 to 90 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 134 to 171 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 185 days to 198 days. In addition, for homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 462 to 460 days. At 460 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around the mid-December 2018.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

  • The active listing inventory decreased by 223 homes in the past couple of weeks and now totals 5,639. The trend is down for the remainder of the year. Last year, there were 7,040 homes on the market, 1,401 more than today.
  • There are 41% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 21%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 201 homes in the past couple of weeks, down 7%, and now totals 2,624. The average pending price is $860,101.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County increased from $1.6 million to $1.7 million. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 42 days. This range represents 39% of the active inventory and 60% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 56 days, a hot seller’s market (less than 60 days). This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 20% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 93 days, a balanced market that does not favor a buyer or seller.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time decreased from 98 days to 93. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased substantially from 134 to 171 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time increased from 185 days to 198 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 462 to 460 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 34% of the inventory and only 14% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County increased in the past couple of weeks from 61 days to 62 days, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to slowly rise as housing makes its way through the Autumn Market.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.5% of all listings and 2.4% of demand. There are only 33 foreclosures and 54 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 87 total distressed homes on the active market, increasing by 5 in the past two weeks. Last year there were 125 total distressed sales, 44% more than today.
  • There were 3,110 closed sales in August, a 12% increase over July 2017 and a 1.3% increase over August 2016. The sales to list price ratio was 98.1% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.8% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 0.7%. That means that 98.5% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned equity sellers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Orange County Housing Report August 29th, 2017

Orange County Housing Report: A Blazing Hot Autumn

With an extremely low inventory and blistering demand, the Autumn Market is poised to be the hottest in years.

Orange County Housing Report August 29th, 2017

A Hot Autumn: With 19% fewer FOR SALE signs this year compared to last, the Autumn Market is going to be hot.

It is that time of the year. Have you seen all of the signs? The leaves are starting to fall, the kids are back in school, and Costco already has Halloween costumes. That is right, autumn is here. The official start to autumn is not until Friday, September 22, but all of the signs are here.

As for Orange County housing, the Autumn Market typically starts around the end of August when the kids head back to their classrooms. It’s no longer the “prime” season for real estate. Both the Spring and Summer Markets are in the past. Housing will now shift gears and transition to a slower time of the year. This year will not be an exception, demand will fall, sales will fall, and the expected market time will start to rise. Nevertheless, this year will be the hottest Autumn Market since 2005.

Today, there are 19% fewer FOR SALE signs on the active listing inventory right now compared to last year at this time. In fact, the last time the supply of homes was this low at the end of August dates back to 2012 when the active inventory was dropping like a rock. And, in spite of this year being the second fewest number of homeowners opting to place their homes on the market this century (2012 was the lowest), demand has remained strong. Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, is still at end of March levels. As a result, the current expected market time is at levels not seen since 2013.

The expected market time takes into account both supply and demand. It is the amount of time a seller can expect to be on the market before opening up escrow. It is the velocity of the market as a whole. Todays expected market time is 62 days, 19% lower than last year’s 77 days. At 62 days, all of Orange County it is a seller’s market. It is no longer a HOT seller’s market, below 60 days, as it was from the end of January to the middle of June of this year, but it is still hotter than July’s 63 day expected market time.

Everything priced below the $1 million mark, is flying off the shelves. The expected market time for homes priced below $500,000 is 34 days. Now that is hot! Above $1 million is a bit of different story, the higher the price, the slower the market. For homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time rises to 462 days.

From here, we can expect the active listing inventory to continue to fall throughout the remainder of 2017. Demand, in terms of new pending sales, will slowly but surely drop throughout the Autumn Market. It will then drop like a rock from Thanksgiving through the end of the year. With both the inventory and demand dropping, the expected market time will only rise slightly for the remainder of the year.

A warning for sellers: do not stretch the asking price much at all. Word from the real estate trenches indicates that many homeowners in the lower ranges are sitting on the market with very little activity and no offers to purchase because of price. In spite of the hotter real estate market, buyers are not willing to overpay for a property. As a seller, if you have been on the market for a while and the number of buyer showings has dropped considerably, the market is speaking to you. It is most likely the price. Homes that are priced well, taking into consideration condition, upgrades, and location, will attract offers to purchase.

A warning for buyers: do not expect the market dynamics to change much in the coming months. Even with a drop in buyer demand during the autumn and Holiday Markets, meaning less buyer competition, there will also be a drop in the number of homeowners placing their homes on the market. Many homeowners will opt to pull their homes off of the market now that both the Spring and Summer Markets are in the rearview mirror. Ultimately, there will be fewer choices. With a drop in both supply and demand at the same time, the expected market time will not fluctuate much.

Active Inventory: The active inventory dropped only slightly during the past couple of weeks.

The active listing inventory shed 15 homes in the past two weeks and now sits at 5,862. Fifteen homes may not be a lot, but it illustrates the direction that the active listing inventory will be heading for the remainder of the year: DOWN. It is the second lowest level this century, trailing only 2012. Typically, the inventory peaks around mid-August, but this year it peaked in mid-July.

Last year at this time, there were 7,267 homes on the market, 1,405 additional homes or 24% more than today.

Demand:  Demand decreased by 2% in the past couple of weeks.

Demand, the number of homes placed into escrow within the prior month, decreased by 65 pending sales, or 2%, in the past two-weeks and now totals 2,825. Demand is off the most in the lower end, homes priced below $750,000. Today, there are 39% fewer homes available below $500,000 compared last year at this time and demand is off by 20%. Obviously, there is plenty of pent up demand and this data point would be through the roof if there were more homes available. Demand is off by 7% for homes priced between $500,000 and $750,000 with 20% fewer homes on the market. Above $750,000, demand is stronger this year compared to last year despite fewer homes on the market.

Last year at this time, demand was at 2,843 pending sales, 18 more than today.

Luxury End:  Luxury demand increased by 4% in the past couple of weeks and the inventory dropped by 3%.

In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million increased from 369 to 385 pending sales, a 4% increase. The luxury home inventory decreased from 2,072 homes to 2,002, a 3% drop. As a result, the expected market time for all homes priced above $1.25 million dropped from 168 days to 156 days. The luxury inventory will continue to drop through the end of the year. Similarly, luxury demand will drop significantly through the end of the year, but it will bounce around a bit, typically increasing slightly in October.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time decreased from 110 to 98 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 130 to 134 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 224 days to 185 days. In addition, for homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 480 to 462 days. At 468 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around the start of December 2018.

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

  • The active listing inventory decreased by 15 homes in the past couple of weeks, and now totals 5,862. The trend is down for the remainder of the year. Last year, there were 7,267 homes on the market, 1,405 more than today.
  • There are 39% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 20%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 65 homes in the past couple of weeks, down 2%, and now totals 2,825. The average pending price is $866,086.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.6 million. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 40 days. This range represents 40% of the active inventory and 60% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 57 days, a hot seller’s market (less than 60 days). This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 19% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 78 days, a tepid seller’s market with very little appreciation.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time decreased from 110 days to 98. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 130 to 134 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time dropped from 224 days to 185 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 480 to 462 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 34% of the inventory and only 14% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County increased in the past couple of weeks from 61 days to 62 days, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to slowly rise as housing makes its way through the Autumn Market.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.4% of all listings and 2.7% of demand. There are only 30 foreclosures and 52 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 82 total distressed homes on the active market, dropping by 6 in the past two weeks. Last year there were 136 total distressed sales, 66% more than today.
  • There were 2,768 closed sales in July, a 14% drop over June 2017 and a 1.9% decrease over July 2016. The sales to list price ratio was 98.2% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.8% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 0.8%. That means that 98.4% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned equity sellers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Orange County Housing Report August 15th, 2017

Orange County Housing Report: An Early 2017 Peak

A low inventory peak means a hot seller’s market for quite some time.

Orange County Housing Report August 15th, 2017

Active Inventory Peak: the active inventory has been low for years, but this year it has been exceptionally low.

The Orange County housing market has been frustrating buyers for years now and 2017 has proved to be especially frustrating. With 7% fewer FOR SALE signs this year compared to last year, there just have not been enough homes to satiate the voracious appetite of buyers.

As a result of low inventory and off-the-chart demand, Orange County homes have appreciated non-stop since 2012. In the past year alone (July ’17 over July ’16), the median sales price has risen by 5.5%, and since 2012 has risen by 80%. Even with a rising median sales price, the historically low interest rate environment is keeping homes affordable. And, interest rates are projected to remain low for the rest of the year and into 2018 as well.

An anemic inventory is only going to fuel future appreciation. Buyers will continue to compete with limited choices and multiple offers will persist, especially in the lower ranges, homes priced below $750,000. The inventory will remain low for quite some time because the active listing inventory peaked about a month ago, not quite reaching the 6,000 home mark. For perspective, the active inventory needs to remain above 8,000 homes for quite some time in order for the housing market to move from a seller’s market to a balanced market, one that does not favor a buyer or seller.

In the past couple of weeks, the active inventory shed 90 homes and now totals 5,877. The peak occurred a month ago at 5,983 homes. Last year’s peak was at 7,329 homes, 22% higher, or 1,346 more FOR SALE signs than this year. There are significantly fewer homes on the market throughout Orange County. The difference is substantial in certain areas of the county. For example, in Aliso Viejo there are 40% fewer homes on the market today compared to 2016 at this time. There are 79 available homes compared to 131. It was challenging finding a home last year, but this year has been significantly worse. With the exception of four areas, Corona del Mar, Cypress, Dana Point, and Portola Hills, there simply are not enough homes on the market compared to a year ago today.

Orange County Housing Report August 15th, 2017

This year’s peak is the lowest peak since Reports On Housing started tracking the local housing market back in 2004. Keeping that in mind, where will the Orange County housing market go from here? First, the active inventory will continue to drop though the end of the year, picking up steam in September. By that point, housing will have moved onto the Autumn Market when fewer homeowners will opt to place their homes on the market with the best time of the year to sell, the Spring and Summer Markets, officially in the rearview mirror.

With such a low peak, the expected seasonal drop in the inventory from now until New Year’s will result in a very anemic start to 2018. It may dip to the record lows of 2013, when there were only 3,161 homes to start the year. Quite simply, there were not enough homes to keep up with the strong demand and bidding wars escalated during the spring. That could be the case this coming year in spite of high prices. Additionally, the low interest rate environment will help fuel another crazy start to the Orange County housing market.

Demand:  Demand increased by 2% in the past couple of weeks.

Demand, the number of homes placed into escrow within the prior month, increased by 55 pending sales, or 2%, in the past two-weeks and now totals 2,890. Demand is either near the same or considerably higher in every price range except for properties priced below $500,000. With 41% fewer homes available below $500,000 compared to this time last year, it is no wonder that demand is off by 20% year over year in this range.

Last year at this time, demand was at 2,935 pending sales, 45 more than today. The expected market time was at 75 days. The current expected market time dropped from 63 days two weeks ago to 61 today. At 61 days, the market is not quite a HOT seller’s market, but a tepid seller’s market with muted appreciation (60 to 90 days).

Orange County Housing Report August 15th, 2017

Luxury End:  Luxury demand dropped by 1% in the past couple of weeks and the inventory increased by only 7 homes.

In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million decreased from 373 to 369 pending sales, a 1% drop, the. The luxury home inventory increased from 2,065 homes to 2,072, nearly the same. The luxury end is not evolving that much right now.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 101 to 110 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million to $2 million, the expected market time dropped from 135 to 130 days. In addition, for homes priced above $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 280 days to 278 days. At 278 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around mid-May of next year.

Orange County Housing Report August 15th, 2017

 

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

  • The active listing inventory decreased by 90 homes in the past couple of weeks, and now totals 5,877, a 2% drop. It officially reached a peak a month ago and is now slowly dropping. The inventory never reached 6,000 homes this year. Last year, there were 7,295 homes on the market, 1,418 more than today.
  • There are 41% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 20%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 55 homes in the past couple of weeks, and now totals 2,890. The average pending price is $844,699.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.6 million. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 39 days. This range represents 39% of the active inventory and 62% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 56 days, a hot seller’s market (less than 60 days). This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 19% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 81, a tepid seller’s market with very little appreciation.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 101 days to 110. For homes priced between $1.5 million to $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 135 to 130 days. For luxury homes priced above $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 280 to 278 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 36% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County dropped in the past couple of weeks from 63 days to 61 days, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to slowly rise as housing transitions into the Autumn Market.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.5% of all listings and 2.3% of demand. There are only 31 foreclosures and 57 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 88 total distressed homes on the active market, identical to two weeks ago. Last year there were 130 total distressed sales, 47% more than today.
  • There were 2,766 closed sales in July, a 14% drop over June 2017 and a 1.9% decrease over July 2016. The sales to list price ratio was 98.2% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.8% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 0.8%. That means that 98.4% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned equity sellers.

 

Orange County Housing Report August 15th, 2017

 

Orange County Housing Report August 15th, 2017

 

 

Orange County Housing Report August 15th, 2017

 

 

Orange County Housing Report August 15th, 2017

 

 

Orange County Housing Report August 15th, 2017

Orange County Housing Report August 4th, 2017

Orange County Housing Report: A Mid-Year Checkup

Buyers and sellers often rely on the price per square foot as a way to determine the value of a home, but it is just not accurate.

Orange County Housing Report August 4th, 2017

Price Per Square Foot: Do not rely on the price per square foot as a reliable method to determine a home’s value.
Everybody is looking for a shortcut in establishing the value of a home. Online home valuation tools are now everywhere, Zillow being the most popular. They simply are not accurate. If you can find the fine print and have a math degree to determine what in the world they are saying, these tools are merely approximations of value and frequently have significant errors. If going online and plugging in an address does not work, what about utilizing the price per square foot to secure the value of a home? Unfortunately, it too is just another unreliable shortcut.

The average price per square foot varies from city to city, neighborhood to neighborhood, street to street, and even home to home. For all of Orange County, the price per square foot in June was $440. In May, it was $459. No, there was not a 4% drop in value from May to June. Instead, it illustrates that this data point cannot be relied upon to determine the value of a home. Just as the median sales price is a poor indicator of the precise increase or decrease in value, the price per square foot is unquestionably as unreliable.

Orange County Housing Report August 4th, 2017

Applying the average price per square foot to different sized homes to determine the value results in a major error in comparing it to the true average sales price. In Orange County, a 3,000 square foot home comes close but is still $29,000 off, a 2% error. In breaking it down by the city, the severity of the errors is similar. In Mission Viejo, for example, there is quite a discrepancy in both the low end and the higher end. In Newport Beach, prices vary considerably for smaller sized homes.

Overall, the price per square foot should not be used to isolate the true value of a home. It can be used, over time, as a gauge to determine which direction home values are moving. Some months it is up, and other months it is down. Yet, over the course of a year, the values will start to paint a picture that illustrates the direction of the market.

So, why can’t the price per square foot be used to zero in on the value of a home? There are way too many nuances that go into the Fair Market Value of a home. The number of bedrooms and bathrooms, lot size, usable lot, square footage, location, pool, spa, upgrades, amenities, condition, main floor bedroom, number of stories, school zone, privacy, architecture, floor plan design, view, garages, street parking, proximity to the beach, and so on, all determine a home’s value. Does the home back to a busy street? Is it located on a cul-de-sac that has homes on only one side of the street? Is there street noise? The list of questions goes on and on.

Square footage alone cannot determine if a home has been updated, upgraded, or is in turnkey condition. For example, four of the exact same Madrid Del Lago single level plans sold in Mission Viejo over the past 90-days, all 2,133 square feet. The sold prices varied from $838,000 ($392 per square foot) to $997,500 ($468 per square foot), a $159,500 difference. Quite obviously, square footage alone does not provide enough information to arrive at the price of a home.

Professional REALTORS® and appraisers take a home and compare it to similar pending and recently sold homes, adjusting the value up and down based upon all of the differences. The price per square foot is not really a factor. There are no shortcuts. The market analysis that professionals prepare is by far the most accurate method for determining the value of a home.

Active Inventory: The active inventory may have already peaked after declining by 16 homes in the past couple of weeks.
The active listing inventory shed 16 homes and now sits at 5,967, the first drop since the end of January. Sixteen homes may not be a lot, but it illustrates how the active inventory is having a real hard time pushing past the 6,000 home mark. And, it looks as if that is not going to occur at all this year. Typically, the inventory peaks around mid-August, but not this year. The theme for 2017 has been fewer homeowners listing their homes for sale. There have been 10% fewer homes to come on the market over the past month, and 7% fewer overall this year. As a result, it looks as if the Orange County active inventory may have already peaked, a bit early.

Last year at this time, there were 7,317 homes on the market, 1,350 additional homes or 23% more than today.

Orange County Housing Report August 4th, 2017

Demand:  Demand increased by 5 pending sales in the past couple of weeks.
Demand, the number of homes placed into escrow within the prior month, increased by 5 pending sales in the past two-weeks and now totals 2,835, nearly the same. Demand is up year over year in every price range except the entry-level market, homes priced below $500,000. With 39% fewer homes available below $500,000 compared to this time last year, predictably, demand is off by 19% year over year.

Last year at this time, there were 31 additional pending sales, totaling 2,866. The current expected market time remained the same over the past couple of weeks at 63 days, a much hotter market than last year’s 77 days. At 63 days, the market is no longer a HOT seller’s market, but a tepid seller’s market with muted appreciation.

Luxury End:  Luxury demand increased by 13% in the past couple of weeks and the inventory fell by 1%.
In the past two weeks, demand for homes above $1.25 million increased from 329 to 373 pending sales, a 13% rise, the highest level since mid-May. The luxury home inventory decreased from 2,089 homes to 2,065, down 1%.  This surge has been isolated to homes between $1.25 million and $2 million.

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time decreased from 123 to 101 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million to $2 million, the expected market time dropped from 176 to 135 days. In addition, for homes priced above $2 million, the expected market time increased from 269 days to 280 days. At 269 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around the beginning of May of next year.

Orange County Housing Report August 4th, 2017

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

  • The active listing inventory decreased by 16 homes in the past couple of weeks and now totals 5,967, nearly the same. The inventory is having a real issue reaching 6,000 homes this year and may have already peaked a couple of weeks ago. Last year, there were 7,317 homes on the market, 1,350 more than today.
  • There are 39% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 19%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by five homes in the past couple of weeks, and now totals 2,835. The average pending price is $842,718.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.6 million. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 40 days. This range represents 39% of the active inventory and 62% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 59 days, a hot seller’s market (less than 60 days). This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 19% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is at 94 days, a balanced market that does not favor a buyer or seller.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time decreased from 123 to 101 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million to $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 176 to 135 days. For luxury homes priced above $2 million, the expected market time increased from 269 to 280 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 35% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County remained the same over the past couple of weeks at 63 days, a tepid seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to slowly rise throughout the Summer Market.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.5% of all listings and 2% of demand. There are only 32 foreclosures and 58 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 88 total distressed homes on the active market, one more than two weeks ago. Last year there were 136 total distressed sales, 54% more than today.
  • There were 3,229 closed sales in June, a 3% increase over May 2017 and a 3% increase over June 2016. The sales to list price ratio was 97.9% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.99% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 0.87%. That means that 98% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned equity sellers.

Orange County Housing Report August 4th, 2017

 

Orange County Housing Report August 4th, 2017

 

Orange County Housing Report August 4th, 2017

 

Orange County Housing Report August 4th, 2017

 

Orange County Housing Report August 4th, 2017